The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. 1461. Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. He received an A.B. An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. EXPANDED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: - Intensifying Risks of a Highly Inflationary, Major U.S. Economic Downturn. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. ET, May 23, 2023. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. What are Shadow's specs? Shadowstats debunked. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. Shadow previously offered three subscription plans: Shadow Boost ($14.99 per month, or $11.99 per month with an annual subscription) with a basic gaming PC setup, Shadow Ultra ($29.99 per. That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Walter J. That circumstance is reviewed in pending ShadowStats Benchmark Commentary No. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] The original Money Supply measure, Basic M-1 is defined as Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. 1459. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Yet, the latest January 2023 Money Supply reporting still showed an actual increase in Basic M1, with an intensifying flight to systemic liquidity, as posted and reviewed in later paragraphs. In Australia, unions are already demanding 3 per cent annual pay rises in wage negotiations, while Labor's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers used Tuesday's data to highlight that inflation was. Thereafter, an Expansion is in place until the next formal Peak, which, the NBER does time. (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -(April 25th) Coverage of the March 2023 Money Supply and March 2023 Monetary Base follows in the MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE Section, subsequent to this FOMC Section. On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%, Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, Some Biographical & Additional Background Information. Commentary No. The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. The Fed will release the headline April 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base data at 1:00 p.m. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. Chairman Powell backed off talk of mandatory, continuing FOMC Rate Hikes to kill Inflation, by killing the economy with high Interest Rates, noting that perhaps the Banking Crisis might slow the economy, and help to contain inflation. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. For example, they . The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. Informal Economy Sizes. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. MARCH 2023 MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE -- (April 25th, Federal Reserve Board [FRB], with ShadowStats Supplement). For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. Here are the results. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%) March 2023 Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization showed meaningful downside benchmark revisions to previously reported activity, but continued in a third month of upturn in context of Federal Reserve regular overestimation of headline Industrial Production. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. Collapsed Oil Prices Still Suppressed November CPI and PPI Annual Inflation; Yet, Oil Prices Suddenly Are Surging Anew -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. 1451, No. The 2021 Financial Report is available here: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/current-report.html -- ShadowStats will provide extended analysis in an updated Hyperinflation Commentary, which will post subsequent to the pending Commentary No. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again.
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